Good morning, here's what the Oilman has for you today:

• Oil Demand Shocks Forecasters with Growth

• 16 States Sue Federal Government for LNG Ban

• Tweet of the Day

Oil Demand Shocks Forecasters with Growth

Oil demand has turned out to be stronger than many expected.

And it’s going to continue growing, per CERAWeek participants.

So, about those peak oil demand predictions…

An “unabated thirst for crude”

That’s how Bloomberg put it in a report lamenting the state of affairs in global energy.

Neither EVs nor wind and solar have managed to put a dent in that thirst.

What a shocker.

It was also embarrassing for those like the IEA who kept underestimating demand growth.

That’s just made such forecasters revise their predictions repeatedly.

And still, the IEA underestimates growth.

Its latest revision puts it at 1.3 million bpd.

But the commodity giants disagree.

Gunvor has grown this year to 1.4 million bpd.

Trafigura is even more bullish, seeing demand at 1.5 million bpd.

And, of course, there’s OPEC with its 2.25-million-bpd growth outlook.

More record-breaking on the way

A lot of forecasters say they’d expected weaker demand because of economic indicators.

It wasn’t so much EVs as GDP growth data that made them pessimistic.

And yet demand surprised to the upside.

Because obviously everyone forgot about a little thing called demand elasticity.

Oil demand is inelastic.

This means that even when consumption of everything else slows, that of oil doesn’t.

Because everyone needs oil, it’s as simple as that.

You’d think professional analysts would know it.

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16 States Sue Federal Government for LNG Ban

Sixteen states have filed a collective lawsuit against the federal government for the “pause” in LNG permits.

They claim the DoE has overstepped its authority with the move.

And now that move will harm the U.S. economy, supply security for allies, and investments.

The industry fights back

The Biden admin announced what it called a pause in new LNG export capacity permits in January.

The decision appeared to be a result of… a meeting with a climate activist.

Apparently, he was a very convincing activist.

The official reason was that permits were being suspended pending a review.

The review would basically seek to determine just how bad LNG is for the climate.

But that review could last forever.

And since oil and gas producers knew it, they cried foul.

The API and six other groups accused the DoE of acting unlawfully.

It said the suspension was only allowable if it protected the public interest.

Now, states are suing the DoE on pretty much the same grounds.

Billions of dollars in planned investments are on the line.

Business versus climate

More LNG exports would be good for state and federal tax revenues.

But they would be bad for the climate, per activists.

The Biden admin has so far sided with activists.

What happens next?

Well, it would be up to a Louisiana court to decide.

The question is, if the court rules for the plaintiffs, what will the DoE do to circumvent that decision?

Because this is what we’ve come to, as the DoI demonstrated with the latest Gulf lease sale.

Even court rulings are no guarantee the law would be upheld.

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