More plastics, please

Vitol sees oil demand hitting 110 million bpd in 2030.

After that, it would start declining, to retreat to 105 million bpd in 2040.

That would be higher than today’s demand.

The IEA put that at 104 million bpd as of 2024.

Clearly, the transition is going perfectly well.

Joke aside, Vitol notes the impact of EVs on gasoline demand.

It says that demand would decline by 4.5 million bpd by 2040.

But demand for petrochemicals will add 6 million bpd.

Demand for liquefied petroleum gas is also set for a rise.

The drivers?

Population growth in developing countries, economic growth, and urbanization.

It’s almost as if modern civilization still runs on hydrocarbons.

And because the members of this civilization are increasing, so is demand.

Who’d have thought it?

The beginning of the end

Vitol is one of the most bullish commodity traders out there.

And this bullishness has made it a lot of money…

While the big transition investors have seen their green billions evaporate.

So, now they are doing U-turns.

Trump will help speed it all up.

And it might eventually turn out Vitol is rather conservative in its forecasts.

It is quite possible to see a reversal of oil demand patterns.

You never know with EVs.

Underperforming IRA…?

Charlie Munger (Warren Buffett’s partner and investing genius) said:

“If you go back to what the rich people of England did back, say, in 1900, they bought consoles, 2.5%, no inflation. Two and a half percent return…you’d be satisfied with that.

“No rich people thought there was any safe way of getting 8% if you go back to 1880 among the rich people of England.”

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