Good morning; here's what the Oilman has for you today:

• Blame Canada Energy Regulator Predicts Oil Gloom and Doom

• UK’s Green Leader Gets Lost. On a Diesel Bus.

• Tweet of the Day

Canada Energy Regulator Predicts Oil Gloom and Doom

Canada’s oil and gas production will drop by 76% by 2050 if the country succeeds with its net-zero plans, the Canada Energy Regulator has warned in a new report.

Global oil consumption, under the report’s hypothetical scenario, will drop by 65% by 2050.

Spot the keyword. It begins with an h.

The gloomy prediction is based on hypothetical modeling. And the modeling is based on stated net-zero goals and ambitions.

What it is not based on is actual progress of the transition.

Modeling is fun!

According to CER’s modeling, Canada’s oil and gas production will begin falling in just three years.

That will be the result of falling oil and gas prices because of – you guessed it – lower demand.

Hypothetically.

Also, hypothetically, Canada’s oil and gas output would fall by 22% if the country goes net zero, but the rest of the world doesn’t.

How about that for a forecast?

Modeling is good and all, but it’s not as good as facts.

Realistically, oil demand has stunned many a transition advocate with its remarkable resilience.

• China is building new refineries.

• Saudi Arabia and the UAE are building or expanding refineries.

• People are vacationing like crazy and airline stocks ripping for summer travel.

Does that look like preparing for an oil-free future?

Even an American company has plans to build a new refinery—the first in five decades.

We’re talking massive investments with long return periods.

Making these investments doesn’t exactly sound like preparation for an oil-free future, does it?

Of course, it doesn’t.

And that’s because the industry knows better than to trust forecasts (The Oilman is looking at you, Mr. Reservoir Engineer @ Publicly Traded Shale Co).

Especially ones based on assumptions that even their supporters admit are highly unlikely to pan out.

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UK’s Green Leader Gets Lost on a Diesel Bus.

I don’t know if you’ve heard about the great green plans of the UK’s Labour Party, but let me tell you they are great. Like, so great. And they are green.

And the party’s leader just got lost on the way to his great, green speech in Scotland…

On a diesel bus…

Which replaced the planned “emission-free” hydrogen bus that should’ve taken him to his destination.

As it happened

The Daily Mail reports that Keir Starmer planned to take journalists to a venue in a Scottish town so they can report on his green plans.

They gathered at the meeting point to get on a special hydrogen bus.

But it never came.

Per a party spokesman, the company providing the bus had said there were “problems” with the vehicle, though it didn’t go into the specifics of these problems.

So, a diesel bus came to pick up the group…

… and promptly took a wrong turn.

Luckily, a Daily Mail reporter in the group spotted the error and gave directions to the driver.

Here’s a hilarious couple of tweets from The Guardian’s Scotland editor.

The man who wants to ban oil and gas

Keir Starmer recently threatened to ban all new oil and gas licensing in the North Sea because of his climate agenda.

At the same time, he promised to create more jobs and lower energy bills.

Hahahahahaha.

And he’s planning to do this by pouring billions into things like, well, hydrogen buses.

Honestly, stand-up comedians have got nothing on real-life political leaders these days.

And they’re not even joking.

The good news for Brits is that existing oil and gas licenses will remain active. For now, at least.

Around the Global Patch

🇳🇴 Norway's seabed mining spurs energy transition.
🇻🇪 Venezuela's economic rebound: defying expectations.
🇦🇺 Australian petrol sales decline in Q1.

Tweet of the Day

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