Good morning, here's what the Oilman has for you today:

• New Bank Rules Can Overturn Transition Cart

• Court Throws Out Kids’ Climate Suit

• Tweet of the Day

New Bank Rules Can Overturn Transition Cart

26 years ago there was a global financial meltdown.

Banking regulators vowed to never let it happen again.

Now, they’re threatening investment in the energy transition.

The Basel III capital trap no one saw coming

The new rules are called the Basel III endgame.

The name may turn out more accurate than expected with regard to renewables.

Because the essence of the endgame is that banks will be obliged to hold more capital.

The purpose of those capital buffers is in the name of insulation against losses and possible bankruptcy.

Interestingly, the rules would require especially fat capital buffers for wind and solar projects.

Because they’re high-cost investments.

All this “potentially makes projects unfinanceable with the implied costs”, per one solar developer.

That developer is very unhappy.

He’s already had bankers admit they won’t be able to keep pouring billions into solar just like that.

It’s a tragedy.

When do we stop counting transition problems?

The Basel III rules, which are obligatory, have already started coming into effect.

The rollout will take five years in all.

So, by 2028, all new rules will be in place.

This means wind and solar developers, and their funders only have four years.

Then the cash springs will pretty much dry.

And then wind and solar will face the test all other businesses face at some point.

Can you stand on your own feet or will you forever be on government life support?

Court Throws Out Kids’ Climate Suit

A San Francisco court has thrown out a case alleging U.S. policies failed to protect the rights of a group of kids.

From climate change.

The decision is final and a rare example of increasingly scarce common sense.

Kids are suing everyone

Kids are suing everyone in sight these days.

Last year, another group of underage Americans won a climate case against the state of Montana.

The court ruled Montana’s energy policies had indeed violated state laws on citizen’s well-being.

Another group of children is suing all EU members for climate change as well.

That suit got returned to Portugal to first try the courts there, however.

The ruling of the three-member panel at the 9^th Circuit Court in San Francisco offers hope.

This hope is that there is still an ounce of sense left in courts.

And the organization that is orchestrating all these cases will get a pause.

To trust or not to trust Our Children’s Trust

Our Children’s Trust specializes in kids suing authorities.

They have been jabbing at the justice system for years.

It’s the simple principle of flinging mud and seeing if it would stick.

The mud: governments allowed oil and gas production knowing they “cause catastrophic global warming.

Well, in Montana the mud stuck.

But not in California, of all places.

But if you think OCT is giving up you’re very wrong.

They will not stop trying while there are people to finance them.

And sooner or later there will be another Montana.

The funny thing about that ruling? No promises to change policies.

Tweet of the Day

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