Good morning, here's what the Oilman has for you today:

• Enverus Destroys IEA on Oil Demand

• Trump Win Turns into Windfall for Anti-Transition …

• Tweet of the Day

Enverus Destroys IEA on Oil Demand

Enverus has taken on the IEA for its latest peak oil demand prediction.

The IEA says demand should decline to 85 million bpd by 2030.

For this to happen, Enverus says, demand needs to fall by 3-4 million bpd a year.

Good luck with that.

Record high demand

A couple of months ago Standard Chartered reported record global oil demand.

The number was 103.8 million bpd.

If this is to decline to 85 million bpd in six years, we’ll need a lot of EVs.

As in, billions more.

And even that won’t help.

Just look at China.

It’s the biggest EV market in the world.

But China’s oil demand is still growing.

Not so much from the transport sector, sure, but even there it’s growing.

Because not every single Chinese person wants an EV despite the low prices.

Clearly, going from 103 million bpd to 85 million bpd is impossible.

To illustrate, Enverus cites 2020 oil demand.

In 2020, demand was 6 million bpd higher than the IEA’s target of 85 million bpd.

Despite the lockdowns.

Remember how some people called for climate lockdowns?

Well, that’s the only way to meet the IEA’s target.

And it’s totally realistic in some other world.

Meanwhile in the real world…

Oil demand is on the rise.

Gas demand is on the rise.

Even coal demand could see a boost during peak demand in the winter season.

But hey, global solar capacity hit 2 TW!

That’s some more negative electricity prices down the road.

And more gas demand to cover for lost supply at night and on cloudy days.

Trump Win Turns into Windfall for Anti-Transition Funds

Hedge funds betting against the transition made $1.2 billion this week.

The windfall followed the stock plunge in stocks following the Tuesday vote.

That was one Big Short that paid off fast.

Stock market massacre

The stocks of wind, solar, EV, and hydrogen companies took a dive this week.

Sunrun shed 30%.

Hydrogen developer Plug Power saw its stock lose 22%.

Orsted, the Danish turbine maker, lost 13%.

“Every stock in the renewable basket collapsed,” per one transition fund manager.

Hedge funds shorting these stocks made $1.2 billion from just the 20 largest ones.

And they might yet make more.

Because Trump is overwhelmingly seen as really bad for transition companies.

Especially offshore wind.

After all, the president-elect threatened to ban the technology on day one.

It’s still early days.

Trump may yet soften the rhetoric.

But a friend of the transition he is unlikely to become.

Which means hard times are ahead, or rather, even harder.

Because transition companies are already struggling despite the previous friendly administration.

Significant IRA modifications

Fear is running rampant in the green space.

It’s totally justified, too.

With control of the Senate and, likely, of the House, the Republicans will have a lot of freedom.

And most Republicans don’t like the IRA.

But there is a but.

The IRA has benefited some Republican-led states.

Those would likely oppose the total annihilation of the transition plan.

But that’s probably a small comfort for those troubled industries.

If they couldn’t make it with the IRA in full, how are they going to make it with a modified IRA?

Tweet of the Day

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