• The Oil Patch
  • Posts
  • 🛢️IEA Admits Oil Demand Stronger Than It Wants

🛢️IEA Admits Oil Demand Stronger Than It Wants

Transition Laid Out: Less Energy, Less Food

Author

The Oilman
March 18th, 2024

Sponsored by

Good morning, here's what the Oilman has for you today:

Transition Laid Out: Less Energy, Less Food

Remember the “cheap, abundant energy” chant of transition politicians?

Yeah, that’s over.

Two activists just laid it out openly.

The transition will mean a lot less energy and a lot less food for all.

The end of economic growth

David Fridley and Richard Heinberg work at a place called the Post Carbon Institute.

You don’t need to guess what it does – it says is on the label.

And the two have summarized all the changes that society needs to undergo for the transition to succeed.

These include quitting oil and gas, moving to organic-only agriculture, and changing manufacturing processes to use less energy.

Ultimately, the transition would require the end of economic growth.

But that’s all right, per Fridley and Heinberg, because it would allow us to live in harmony with nature.

Those who survive, that is.

Because all these changes would lead to massive shortages of energy and food.

The mask is off

Transition leaders have been dropping hints of what’s in store for a while now.

They started when it became too obvious the “cheap, abundant energy” scenario is fiction.

So now they’re trying to feed us the truth in small doses until we get used to it.

The Fridley and Heinberg summary is a larger-than-usual dose of truth.

Basically, we’re supposed to start preparing for a future of next to no consumption…

…of anything much, really.

That’s the only way the transition has a chance of working.

At least now its advocates are being honest about it, for what it’s worth.

With Bay Area Times, you will get graphics like these, so you quickly understand the news without having to read through long and boring paragraphs.

Visual-based newsletter on business and tech

We explain the latest business, finance, and tech news with visuals and data.đź“Š

All in one free newsletter that takes < 5 minutes to read. đź—ž

Save time and become more informed today.👇

Today’s Edition Is Brought To You By, Well, Us

It’s been just over a year since this publication launched. Woot, woot!

The ol’ Oilman has published 500+ articles, sent out 250+ newsletters, and reached 9,000+ readers.

And it’s all been free.

But we need your help.

The Oilman is going to keep this newsletter free to read each week, but only on Mondays.

Tuesday through Thursday, will be available to our premium subscribers.

That’s where you come in, dear reader.

The Oilman wants to invite you to join OilPatch Pro.

Why subscribe?

  • Monday - Friday newsletter

  • Around the Global Patch links

  • Links to upcoming Oil & Gas events

  • Always Authentic, No Ads, No B.S.

Sign up for OilPatch Pro today!

IEA Admits Oil Demand Stronger Than It Wants

The International Energy Agency just revised its oil demand growth outlook for 2024.

By a million bpd.

It also suddenly realized the market’s going to swing into a deficit.

A month ago, it was forecasting a surplus.

You can’t trust the data…

IEA’s data used to be the most reliable.

Then, the agency turned from market watcher to transition advocate.

And it started forecasting what it wanted and not what the market suggested.

So then, when the actual data came it, the IEA had to make embarrassing revisions.

Like this last one.

It seems the IEA only realized this month that OPEC+ was not reversing the output cuts anytime soon.

It was the only one. Everyone else knew since last year they’re not reversing them until oil goes much higher.

Which it did this week, thanks to the IEA update.

Brent topped $85, and WTI surged over $81.

…But you can trust the market

Whatever forecasters say, markets always have the last word.

Right now, markets are saying that demand for oil is growing at a healthy pace.

Supply, on the other hand, is not growing at such a healthy pace.

And this means that down the road, there’s a shortage in store for everyone.

You can bet there will be a lot of surprised forecasters when this happens.

And the White House will probably blame OPEC and greedy Big Oil for it.

Tweet of the Day

Thanks for reading today's Oil Patch!

Stay oily, my friend.

Two quick requests before you go:

  • If you found this useful, forward this email to a friend to spread the word. 👇

  • Take 1 second to answer the poll below 👇👇