🛢 Iran Seized A U.S. Tanker

Plus IEA versus OPEC

Good morning; here's what the Oilman has for you today:

  • IEA Versus OPEC

  • Iran Seized A U.S. Tanker

  • Tweet of the Day

IEA Versus OPEC

IEA’s Fatih Birol fired across OPEC’s bow Thursday. OPEC best not be cutting any more oil production because this would ultimately hurt oil demand – according to Birol.

OPEC shot back immediately: the IEA should be very careful about undermining investments in more oil production.

It’s a war of warnings

The IEA, once a favorite source for OPEC’s own production tracking data, has turned into a nuisance for the cartel. Why? IEA is open and vocal support for the energy transition.

Last year, OPEC dropped it as a data supplier, but the IEA didn’t get the hint.

“They have to be very careful,” Birol said in an interview with Bloomberg this week.

“If the oil producers try to push prices up, this will only accelerate the electric cars’ penetration.”

Lolz. Scary stuff, right?

But not to OPEC.

"If anything will lead to future volatility, it is the IEA’s repeated calls to stop investing in oil,” OPEC secretary-general Haitham al Ghais said.

He then blew the IEA pirates out of the water, saying that “all data-driven outlooks envisage the need for more of this precious commodity to fuel global economic growth and prosperity in the decades to come, especially in the developing world."

Ouch. If the developing world remains poor, you know who to blame: IEA.

No prospect of parley

The IEA and OPEC have been at odds for years now, but this recent escalation in rhetoric is new.

It means OPEC could not care less what the IEA thinks about its production control policies.

And there is nothing the IEA can do to influence these policies... except anger the cartel enough to prompt another production cut.

Basically, OPEC can do whatever it wants, and no threat of EV penetration would prevent it from doing just that.

It’s not exactly a rosy picture for the rest of us.

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Listen on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and more.

Iran Seized A U.S. Tanker

Iranian forces seized a tanker in the Gulf of Oman this week.

That’s normal, right? No…?

This angered Washington because the tanker was en route to H-Town, TX.

A couple of Senators fanned the flames with a call on President Biden to allow the seizure of Iranian tankers again.

We can forget about any nuclear deals

Iran seized the Marshall Islands-flagged Advantage Sweet on Thursday. The Iranian powers-that-be claim it had hit an Iranian boat.

The U.S. Navy called the seizure harassment and added Iran’s actions in the Gulf were “a threat to maritime security and the global economy.”

On cue, two Senators slammed the White House for curbing the powers of the Department of Homeland Security in seizing Iranian oil cargo.

There hasn’t been an Iran oil cargo seizure for more than a year, Senator Joni Ernst complained.

Apparently, this is unthinkable.

These tit-for-tat cargo seizures won’t help if negotiations on the nuclear deal are ever renewed.

And it all started so well...

The United States and Iran discussed the return of the nuclear deal last year with EU mediation.

With oil prices soaring after Russia’s Ukraine invasion, it was kind of urgent to get these down by finding additional supply.

The talks hit a snag, however, and were paused.

Since then, tensions have been climbing as Iran sided with Russia, which shouldn’t have really surprised anyone.

With this latest flare-up plus a proposed law to curb Iran’s activity in the Gulf, chances are that the Nuclear deal is not getting revived anytime soon.

And this means Iranian crude is not returning to global markets.

Around the Global Patch

🇺🇦 Global demand for Ukrainian grain.
🇮🇷 Senators push for confiscation of Iran's oil cargoes.
🇷🇺 Russia seeks to increase oil revenue.

Tweet of the Day

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