Good morning, this is the Oil Patch. We're the Chewbacca to your Han Solo on this oil and gas adventure we call life.

Here's what the Oilman has for you today:

• Major Mediterranean Hub Suspended

• The IEA Report: A Gloomy Outlook for Renewables

• Nord Stream Debacle

• Tweet of the Day

Major Mediterranean Hub Suspended

The twin earthquakes in Turkey and Syria have left a significant impact on the oil industry.

Crude oil loadings from the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) terminal in the Mediterranean have been suspended due to some damage at the connection points of two berths.

The force majeure notice, which releases exporters or producers from liability for circumstances outside of their control, has been issued for an estimated 10 days.

Azerbaijan and BTC Terminal are Major Oil export hubs

Azeri BTC Blend crude is the main export stream for OPEC+ member Azerbaijan and the BTC terminal is a major oil export hub, so this suspension will surely have a ripple effect on the global oil market.

However, the good news is that the Ceyhan port's second terminal, Botas, has resumed loadings, bringing in Kirkuk blend crude from Iraq's Kurdistan Regional Government for export into the Mediterranean.

What you need to know:

• Crude oil loadings from Turkey's Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan terminal suspended

• Terminal loads Azeri BTC Blend crude

• Loading operations interrupted

• An assessment carried out on pipeline operations

How is this affecting oil prices?

The ICE Brent contract with April expiry is trading at $84.60 per barrel, and the Nymex WTI contract with March delivery is at $78.15, both slightly up from yesterday's close prices.

The suspension of crude oil loadings from the BTC terminal will have a short-term effect on the oil market, but the resumption of loadings at the Botas terminal shows that the industry is bouncing back.

Nonetheless, the focus remains on the recovery and relief efforts in Turkey and Syria after the devastating earthquakes.

The IEA Report: A Gloomy Outlook for Renewables

In recent years, there has been much talk about the potential for renewables to replace fossil fuels as the dominant source of energy. However, the latest report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) suggests that this may not be the case.

Warm Weather Dampens Natural Gas Prices

According to the IEA, natural gas prices are forecast to average $3.40 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in 2023, down almost 50% from last year. The warmer-than-normal weather in January led to a lower consumption of natural gas, pushing inventories above the five-year average and contributing to the drop in prices.

Oil Production in Russia to Dip

The IEA also predicts that global liquid fuels consumption will increase in the next two years, driven by growth in China and other non-OECD countries. Meanwhile, oil production in Russia is expected to fall, due to the EU's ban on seaborne petroleum products from the country. But the Oilman isn't so sure that's how supply and demand works...

Coal Losing Ground, But Renewables Not Filling the Gap

Despite a shift away from coal for electricity generation, the IEA does not expect renewables to fill the gap left by fossil fuels. The share of U.S. electricity generated from coal is expected to fall from 20% in 2022 to 17% in 2024, while the share of generation from "renewable sources" is expected to rise from 22% in 2022 to 26% in 2024.

GDP Growth to Pick Up in 2024

The IEA report also notes that the U.S. GDP is expected to contract slightly in the first half of 2023, but to pick up in the second half of the year and reach an annual average of 2.1% in 2024.

In conclusion, the IEA report provides a realistic outlook on the energy market and suggests that renewables may not be able to fill the gap left by fossil fuels. Despite the shift away from coal and the growth of renewable energy sources, the report highlights that the outcomes remain uncertain and that there may be challenges ahead for the energy sector.

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Nord Stream Debacle

It seems like the Nord Stream explosions have become quite a geopolitical topic.

The Russian foreign ministry is pointing fingers at the U.S. and calling for a comment on the "facts" presented in a recent report, while the White House is dismissing the allegations as "utterly false and complete fiction."

Explosions on the Nord Stream pipelines were a major event

Amidst the accusations and denials, one thing remains clear: the explosions on the Nord Stream pipelines last year were a major event, causing damage to multibillion-dollar infrastructure projects that carried Russian gas to Germany. And while investigators from Sweden and Denmark have deemed the ruptures as a result of sabotage, they have not said who they believe was responsible.

Do the countries have something to hide?

Russia claims that the countries "have something to hide" and are purposely blocking them out from the investigation, but Western officials have denied any involvement. All in all, it's a murky situation with plenty of questions and few answers.

It's not surprising that the U.S. and Russia are both keen to protect their interests and reputation, but it's important to remember that the real losers in this situation are the people impacted by the explosions and the interruption of energy supplies.

Tweet of the Day

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