Good morning, this is the Oil Patch. Where we grind up the energy news into a delicious cup of morning joe. Just for you.

Here's what the Oilman has for you today:

• U.S. Natural Gas Is Under the Weather

• Chevron Eyes Algerian Shale Gas deal

• Western Europe's Largest Oilfield Goes Down

• Tweet of the Day

U.S. Natural Gas Is Under-the-Weather

Stuck in a weather-induced holding pattern, with rising output and milder weather forecasts, natural gas prices have fallen to a 25-month low. But there might be a remedy on the horizon in the form of Freeport LNG's export terminal in Texas.

But Freeport LNG was shut down by an explosion

The repairs to the damage caused in June of 2022 was originally scheduled for an October 2022 re-opening, but that was subsequently delayed until December 2022, and then some.

Federal regulators are set to hold a public meeting about Freeport LNG on February 11 to provide an update on the situation. The slow restart of Freeport, in addition to the mild winter weather, will play a big role in determining the future of natural gas prices.

Freeport LNG is finally making some headway in its journey to restart operations and has received approval for the first phase of the restart process. The expected timeline for restart remains mid-March and it's expected to take 60 days from the restart to reach 100 percent utilization.

However, the actual restart date remains a mystery.

What does this do to NatGas prices?

The delays in the Freeport LNG restart, along with unseasonably warm weather and record high supply, have inflated the end-of-winter natural gas storage estimates, resulting in summer price forecasts falling by as much as $1/MMBtu from previous outlooks.

This makes the expected midyear oversupply seem even worse.

Despite the recent setbacks, Freeport LNG remains one of the largest liquefaction facilities in the world, capable of producing 15 million tons per annum. Hopefully, the restart will go smoothly, and the facility will soon be back to full operation, potentially boosting the US natural gas market.

Fingers crossed.

Chevron Eyes Algerian Shale Gas Deal

Chevron is looking to play big in Algeria and tap into the country's vast shale gas resources. According to recent reports, the US energy giant has increased efforts to reach an energy exploration agreement with Algeria and is assessing the North African country’s potentially huge shale gas resources.

But Chevron isn't the only one interested

With Algeria holding the world's third-biggest shale gas resources, it's no wonder other energy majors, such as Eni and TotalEnergies, are also looking to North Africa as a source to replace Russian natural gas deliveries to Europe.

Chevron is already a major player in the Mediterranean region, with a stake in the Leviathan gas field offshore Israel and as the operator of the Nargis Offshore Area Concession in Egypt.

With Eni announcing a significant new gas discovery last month in the Nargis-1 exploration well, Chevron has got some competition.

Will there be exploration for Algerian shale?

Algeria is thought to hold the third largest reserves of natural gas, after China and Argentina. If Europe wants to reduce its dependence on Russian gas by 2027, then the Mediterranean and North Africa are the answer. It will be interesting to see how this potential deal develops and what role Algeria will play in Europe's quest to reduce its dependence on Russian gas.

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Western Europe's Largest Oilfield Goes Down

The mighty Johan Sverdrup Oilfield in Norway has hit a bit of a snag. Apparently, there was a technical fault in the cooling system, which caused a reduction in power supply and forced the operator, Equinor, to halt production.

This is definitely not great news for the energy major

Especially when Johan Sverdrup 1 can pump up to 535,000 barrels per day. To put that into perspective, that's enough to meet 6-7% of daily oil demand in Europe.

The good news is that the second phase of the oilfield, Johan Sverdrup 2, is still operating normally. According to a filing with Nordpool, the estimated shutdown of the power supply is only two to three days, with a tentative restart date of mid-day on Wednesday.

This outage comes just a day after the EU banned Russian imports

This outage comes just a day after the EU banned seaborne imports of refined petroleum products from Russia. With the Johan Sverdrup oilfield being Western Europe's biggest oilfield, most of the volumes will still go to Europe, despite the recent embargo.

This is a bump in the road for Equinor and the Johan Sverdrup oilfield. But it's definite pain point for in the strained European energy system.

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