Good morning, here's what the Oilman has for you today:

• Oil Industry Sees Stable Demand Despite Transition

• Radical Activists are Worse than Climate Deniers: UK Energy Sec

• Upcoming Oil and Gas Events

• Tweet of the Day

Oil Industry Sees Stable Demand Despite Transition

Oil consumption in 2050 will not be much different from what it is now, according to U.S. oil executives.

At the same time, execs expect the energy transition to make oil more expensive.

Just when so many people saw peak oil demand

Over the past week or so, there’s been a sort of rush to predict peak oil demand.

And now these U.S. oil executives go and bust the bubble.

More than 50% of respondents in the Dallas Fed survey said they expected oil consumption in 2050 will be higher than it is now.

It might have something to do with a growing global population.

The more people, the higher the energy demand.

And EVs don’t seem to factor in.

What a pity – all peak oil demand forecasts rest on EVs.

Optimism despite higher costs

A climate activist could argue that it’s the oil executives’ job to talk their book.

Yeah, no.

That’s not really the case.

Oil executives need to be realistic.

If they’re not, their business could die.

So, chances are that their forecast about oil demand is a lot more realistic than the IEA’s.

The IEA is literally talking its own book – has been since it turned from an energy data agency into a transition champion.

In the meantime, that transition is going to push oil prices higher.

It is a perfect scenario for the industry, likely to give activists an ulcer or two.

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Radical Activists are Worse than Climate Deniers: UK Energy Sec

Radical activists like Just Stop Oil and Extinction Rebellion are worse than climate deniers.

That’s according to the UK’s new energy secretary, who said activists only “put people off” the transition.

A true revelation

“The biggest threat to the cause isn’t the climate change deniers; it’s the zealots who are turning people off,” Claire Coutinho said.

Not only are they turning people off, but they are boosting support for inconvenient political parties.

It’s a matter of survival for those in government.

In Germany, support for the Greens has sunk while support for a climate skeptic party, AfD, has surged.

In Sweden, people voted for a party that quickly rolled back transition ambitions.

In the Netherlands, farmers formed a party to counter the government’s plan to effectively kill local agriculture.

And they won massive support.

Coutinho’s own party in the UK just walked back on some of its own ambitions.

That had a lot to do with people starting to grumble about the transition.

Not least because of the hand-gluers that made a habit out of blocking busy streets.

And the police doing nothing to remove them.

There is a bigger reason for being put off, though

It’s the cost of the transition.

Road blockades can be frustrating, for sure.

But it’s the cost of heat pumps, green electricity, and EVs that are putting people off a lot more strongly.

That’s why France walked back on the heat pump mandate.

That’s why the UK decided not to ban new oil and gas leasing.

That’s why Germany renegotiated the ICE car ban planned for 2035.

The transition is going to be expensive, and people are waking up to the fact.

Activists are simply helping the awakening along.

Upcoming Oil & Gas Events

• October 1-5: 2023 SGA GMRC Gas Machinery Conference, Phoenix, AZ

• October 2: Energy Capital Conference 2023, Statler Hotel, Dallas TX

• October 2-6: SPE Gulf Coast Section-Electric Submersible Pumps, The Woodlands, TX

Around the Global Patch

🇮🇳 India's aluminum demand rattles global markets.
🇧🇬 Bulgaria boosts military amid Black Sea tensions.
🇷🇺 Russia charges India a $20 premium for Ural oil.

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