🛢️OPEC vs IEA on Oil Demand

New York Says “No” to No-Longer-Cheap Wind Power

Author

The Oilman
October 16th, 2023

Good morning, here's what the Oilman has for you today:

  • OPEC vs IEA on Oil Demand

  • New York Says “No” to No-Longer-Cheap Wind Power

  • Upcoming Oil and Gas Events

  • Tweet of the Day

OPEC vs IEA on Oil Demand

OPEC and IEA both issued their monthly oil reports this week.

Unsurprisingly, their oil demand projections are vastly different.

Who’s right?

2.4 million bpd or 880,000 bpd?

OPEC forecast 2024 oil demand growth at 2.4 million barrels daily.

That’s despite economic growth concerns fueled by a recent IMF report.

Based on demand trends from last year and this one, OPEC has a pretty good reason to expect strong growth.

Oil last year topped $100 and stayed there for a while.

Yet demand grew from 97 million bpd in 2021 to 99.6 million bpd.

The IEA, however, sees demand growing by just 880,000 bpd.

Why? Well, because of slower GDP growth and—you guessed it—the energy transition.

As if the transition did anything about oil demand last year or this.

Total loss of credibility

Once upon a time, the IEA was a pretty reliable source of information on all things oil.

Now, it’s a mouthpiece for the energy transition.

This has compromised its forecasts and damaged its credibility.

Ironically, OPEC, the oil cartel, now seems like the more credible source of info on future demand and supply trends.

Because it has to be accurate: the well-being of its members depends on that.

For OPEC, wishful thinking won’t do.

It also won’t do for the IEA, at least not for very long.

Regrettably, that’s not stopping it from practicing it.

Today’s Edition Is Brought To You By ROX Exploration

Invest in the future of energy with ROX Exploration – a family-owned, independent company dedicated to exploring, developing, and producing oil and natural gas assets. ROX's team of experts drills and operates properties throughout Oklahoma.

If you're an accredited investor looking to diversify into direct oil & gas working interest offerings, then connect with ROX Exploration today.

New York Says “No” to No-Longer-Cheap Wind Power

New York State has refused to raise electricity prices for consumers to make offshore wind profitable.

The decision follows a request by wind developers for higher prices.

Busting the cheap wind power myth

The myth busters this time are the wind power developers themselves.

Wind power companies have been complaining about much higher materials prices for months.

Some have declared impairment charges worth billions.

Others are suffering billions in costs on faulty turbines.

The wind power industry is not doing well.

So, what does it do?

It asks governments for more money.

Only, it’s not getting it.

Per the New York Public Service Commission, electricity bills would have jumped by 6.7% if it had done what Big Wind wanted.

And New Yorkers already have some of the highest bills in the country.

It was really a no-brainer.

What’s next for Big Wind?

Projects are likely to start getting canceled.

If an offshore farm can’t turn a profit and governments won’t subsidize it to the end of the world, no one would build it.

Bad news for Biden’s offshore wind ambitions.

But good news for whales and other forms of marine life.

Also, for New Yorkers.

Upcoming Oil & Gas Events

Around the Global Patch

🇧🇷 Brazil's battle for international hydrocarbon investment.
🇺🇦 Ukraine's gas reserves: helping Europe weather winter.
🇷🇺 Russia's energy weapon in the Ukraine conflict.

Tweet of the Day

Thanks for reading today's Oil Patch!

Stay oily, my friend.

Two quick requests before you go:

  • If you found this useful, forward this email to a friend to spread the word. 👇

  • Take 1 second to answer the poll below, and please tell us what you think 👇👇

What do you think of today's edition?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.