Good morning, here's what the Oilman has for you today:

• Texas Braces for Eclipse-Caused Drop in Solar Power

• OPEC Strikes Back at IEA with Oil Demand Growth Forecast

• Upcoming Oil and Gas Events

• Tweet of the Day

Texas Braces for Eclipse-Caused Drop in Solar Power

Twenty years ago, Texas’s grid operator probably didn’t care at all about eclipses.

Today, it is in a rush to prepare for a major dip in solar generation as a result of the coming eclipse.

R like reliability

The annual solar eclipse expected this weekend will reduce solar generation by as much as 90%.

And it will be happening in the hours of highest generation from solar farms, between 10 am and 1 pm.

ERCOT, however, doesn’t appear too worried.

It’s said it will use batteries and gas power plants to take over.

Kind of makes you wonder what Texans would’ve done if there were no gas plants left open.

After all, that’s one of the goals of the transition: ending all baseload power generation.

Sadly, the sun sets every day…

And ERCOT has already had trouble compensating for that inescapable fact of life.

The summer was a tough time with record demand as the state’s population experienced a boom.

Solar generation was also high, but only until sunset.

Once the sun was down, solar farms died. But demand didn’t.

I wouldn’t wish ERCOT’s situation from this summer on anyone.

Texas’s population will probably continue to grow in the coming years.

We could hope there will be no gas and coal plant closures.

In fact, we could hope more would get built to take over wind and solar when necessary.

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OPEC Strikes Back at IEA with Oil Demand Growth Forecast

OPEC has forecast oil demand will rise to 116 million barrels daily by 2045.

The figure is a slap in the face of the IEA and other forecasters that claim oil demand will peak before 2030.

A warning against chaos

"Calls to stop investments in new oil projects are misguided and could lead to energy and economic chaos," said OPEC head Haitham al-Ghais.

This was a direct attack on the IEA, which has been making these calls for some time now.

Of course, it has also called for more oil and gas investment when prices have gone up.

The thing is that investors seem to still trust the IEA and base decisions on its forecasts.

And that’s exactly what OPEC is warning about.

In its forecast, the cartel also said the world needs $14 trillion in new oil and gas investment.

That’s necessary to cover the expected higher demand.

But if investors listen to the IEA, there would be no $14 trillion for new oil and gas investment.

Cue energy supply crunch and chaos.

Wishful thinking meets the blowtorch of reality

A lot of what the IEA and other transition advocates are forecasting is obviously wishful thinking.

These forecasts talk a lot about massive buildouts of wind and solar, for instance.

In reality, buildouts are slowing because of cost inflation.

They also talk a lot about EVs as destroyers of oil demand.

But EV sales are nowhere near as strong as they need to be for the destruction to happen.

Unlike the IEA, OPEC needs to keep its pulse on the real world.

Its members depend on oil revenues, so they need to be realistic about demand.

When did an oil cartel become more trustworthy than the IEA?

Upcoming Oil & Gas Events

• October 12: Arkansas Independent Producers & Royalty Owners Association Annual Meeting, Little Rock, AR

• October 12: Indiana Oil & Gas Association Annual Meeting, New Harmony, IN

• October 12: Oklahoma Oil and Gas Expo, Bennet Event Center, Oklahoma City, OK

• October 16: Fall Classic Golf Tournament, Ratliff Ranch Gold Links, Odessa, TX

• October 16-18: SPE Annual Technical Conference and Exhibition, San Antonio, TX

• October 16-18: IOGCC Annual Conference, Park City, UT

Around the Global Patch

🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia's full oil delivery to North Asia in November.
🇵🇸 Hamas attack reignites Middle East war premium in oil markets.
🇦🇿 Azerbaijan and Turkey begin Nakchivan pipeline.

Tweet of the Day

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