Good morning, here's what the Oilman has for you today:

• Silicon Valley Bank: Bogus Solar Worries and the Real Danger

• The Ides of March

• Tweet of the Day

Silicon Valley Bank: Bogus Solar Worries and the Real Danger

There are scads of news articles lamenting SVB's status as a major lender to solar projects, whether community-driven or larger scale.

The article predictably states: the collapse of SVB puts these "much needed" solar projects in jeopardy.

But that's not the real danger. The Fed's new policy is.

Oklahoma Senator James Lankford highlighted the real problem while questioning U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, Janet Yellen, during Thursday's Senate Finance Committee hearing.

Lankford asked, "Right, so what is your plan to keep large depositors from moving their funds out of community banks into the big banks?"

"We have seen the mergers of banks over the past decade. I'm concerned, you're about to accelerate that by encouraging anyone who has a large deposit and Community Bank to say, we're not going to make you whole," Lankford continued.

"But if you go to one of our preferred banks, we will make you whole at that point." Lankford ended.

A long uncomfortable pause ensues.

Yellen answered, "Look, I mean, we're...that's certainly not something that we're encouraging..."

"But it's happening," added Lankford.

Remember, the solar supply chain is dominated by China

It has been estimated that Chinese companies control 75-80% of the market.

And Chinese companies had major moolah in SVB.

"It has been reported publicly, that SVB had a large number of Chinese investors that are there, including some that were companies directly connect to the Chinese Communist Party," Lankford asked Yellen.

"So what I'm asking is, will my banks in Oklahoma pay a special assessment to be able to make Chinese investors whole from Silicon Valley Bank?"

Yellen's answer...?

Yes.

"Uninsured investors will be made whole in that bank. And I suppose that could include foreign and foreign depositors," answered Yellen.

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The Ides of March

No, this ain't no story about Julius Caesar.

It's about oil demand and pricing forecasts based off reports that dropped on March 15th.

And Q3 2023 is when things are going to get interesting

What does the Oilman mean interesting?

Prices are currently at roughly year lows...

Crude and natural gas inventories are at all time highs...

Winter has been mild...

And we've got a banking crisis on our hands now.

Et tu Brute?

But, global crude production fell – for the third month in a row. And it fell by 365,000 barrels per day.

Meanwhile, the EIA increased their international oil demand estimate by an additional 100,000 barrels per day.

Permian operators are needing oil prices to remain above $50/bbl, while Shale producers need $60+/bbl according to the Dallas Fed.

Meanwhile, oil bulls are trying to survive to trade another day (like Harris Kupperman of Praetorian Capital):

Don't be like Caesar. Heed the signs. Survive the Ides of March.

Around the Digital Patch

🤦‍♂️ Boston is getting rid of fossil fuel appliances.🪨 Blackrock's Larry Fink has 180'd on oil and gas.🗽 NY legislators pushing back on natural gas appliance ban.

Tweet of the Day

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