Good morning, here's what the Oilman has for you today:

• U.S. Oil Output Could Hit 13.3 Million Bpd in 2024

• OPEC Says “No Way” To Oil Phaseout Plan

• Upcoming Oil and Gas Events

• Tweet of the Day

U.S. Oil Output Could Hit 13.3 Million Bpd in 2024

Crude oil production could hit 13.3 million barrels daily next year, from a record high this year.

That’s according to analysts who note Exxon’s and Chevron’s higher spending plans.

There’s a but, though.

13.3 million bpd would be just a 100,000-bpd increase from this year’s peak output rate.

A growth slowdown?

Some analysts have been warning about it.

This year, U.S. oil production rose by about 1 million bpd.

But expectations for 2024 are more modest.

There’s talk about a possible recession – yes, still – and there’s the higher cost environment to consider.

Yet there was a similar talk earlier this year.

Remember? Analysts worried that U.S. drillers are not drilling enough or spending enough.

And yet they boosted output by a full million barrels daily.

The OPEC threat

Whether it grows fast or slow, U.S. shale production is becoming a threat to OPEC.

Yeah, again.

If history is any indication, the way that the cartel deals with such threats is by flooding the market with oil and crashing prices.

Some expect it but not all.

OPEC is bigger now; it’s got all these OPEC+ partners led by Russia.

Decisions are harder to make.

The flooding tactic is still possible but not very likely.

This means U.S. shale will likely surprise the upside yet again in 2024.

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OPEC Says “No Way” To Oil Phaseout Plan

COP28 is ending today it will, and it will end without a global agreement for the phaseout of oil and gas.

Thank OPEC.

The cartel is not signing anything with “phaseout” in it and transition fans are furious.

Does it get any more predictable than this?

Oil-producing nations were against a phaseout from the start.

It would have been a fantasy to expect them to change their minds in a matter of days.

Or years, for that matter.

When your economy depends on oil and gas, this is a decision you are unlikely to make.

Unless you’re the UK, that is. If you’re the UK, anything is possible.

The U.S. and Canada are also in a dissonance.

Both have pretty solid oil and gas industries, to put it mildly.

Both are currently ruled by governments that are not fans of those industries.

Even so, it was the Biden admin that sold 180 million barrels from the SPR to keep prices at the pump low.

And it hasn’t said a word about the record-breaking national oil output this year.

30 years of summits and record oil demand

This is the summary of the 28 COPs since 1995.

There has been a lot of talk every year.

There have been a lot of financial commitments.

And there has undoubtedly been massive support for a shift away from oil and gas.

Only both oil and gas demand have continued rising.

But sure, let’s waste a few more million on organizing annual summits that are getting bigger and bigger.

What happened to emission reductions? Nobody goes to COP on foot.

Upcoming Oil & Gas Events

• December 15: 23rd Annual KOGA Christmas Party, Bodley Bullock House, Lexington, KY

• January 16: TIPRO/IPAA Leaders in Industry Luncheon, Petroleum Club of Houston, Houston, TX

• January 17: IPAA Private Capital Conference, The Post Oak at Uptown Houston, Houston, TX

• January 17-18: GO-WV Winter Meeting, Marriott Town Center Hotel, Charleston, WV

• January 18: Kansas Oil and Gas Day Legislative Reception, Kansas State Capital, Topeka, KS

• January 23-25: POWERGEN International, Ernest N. Morial Convention Center, New Orleans

Around the Global Patch

🇧🇷 Brazil boosts bid round with billion-barrel blocks.
🇮🇳 India ramps up refining: 1M bpd.
🇧🇬 Bulgaria-Serbia gas pipeline goes online.

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