LNG is definitely booming

Just a few years ago, LNG was dirt cheap and everyone expected a prolonged glut.

But demand for gas rose so much, so fast, those predictions soon reversed.

The Ukraine war certainly helped as Europe lost most of its gas supply.

So, no wonder Venture Global initially saw itself worth more than BP.

Well, it’s a little wonder.

Venture Global’s only been around for a few years.

It doesn’t even have a single LNG plant officially in operation.

But it is sure exporting a lot of LNG.

And making billions that its long-term clients are now disputing.

Also, its second plant, Plaquemines, is running over budget.

Which is admittedly quite common in the world of LNG.

There’s virtually no LNG facility that’s been on budget.

And it doesn’t really matter, not with the outlook we have on LNG demand.

But Venture Global did overdo the valuation a bit.

And it scared investors off.

Tread carefully

First of all, the company had to slash its price range.

The maximum expected valuation fell to $60 billion.

And it got it, selling shares at $25 apiece.

But some investors sat the IPO out.

This means some investors are not as convinced as Venture it has a bright future in LNG.

That dispute with Big Oil may be the reason.

Can’t have it both ways

Trump’s obviously an oil-first man.

He wants to make it as easy as possible for companies to pump as much as they can.

But they don’t want to, and it’s not just because of fiscal discipline.

Big Oil majors have spent heavily on so-called low-carbon energy.

They were forced to.

They were enticed to, with subsidies.

And the oil industry’s no different than any other.

They love subsidies—and don’t want to lose them.

Take Oxy, for example.

It spent more than $1 billion to build direct air capture.

It’s insanely expensive, so the Biden admin promised cash help.

Now, Trump is threatening that help.

Of course Oxy would be unhappy.

Exxon has bet big on carbon capture as well.

No wonder Darren Woods warned Trump about U-turning on net zero.

There’s money at stake. Lots of it.

A show to remember

Per reports, industry executives are making their unhappiness known.

But knowing Trump, he’ll probably just tell them to drill more.

They probably won’t do that.

But they do stand to lose money from their transition bets.

Drilling more may be the best way to offset those losses…

Or not, if Trump gets his way with the Saudis and they start drilling more.

It’s going to be an interesting four years for sure.