Good morning, here's what the Oilman has for you today:

• World Bank Sees Lower Oil Prices in 2024. But…

• Canada Moves Closer To Becoming LNG Exporter

• Upcoming Oil and Gas Events

• Tweet of the Day

World Bank Sees Lower Oil Prices in 2024. But…

The World Bank has forecast an average price of $81 per barrel of Brent for 2024.

But there’s always a but.

If the Middle East conflict spreads, oil could soar above $150 per barrel.

It’s a slim chance, but you never know

The WB looked at three supply disruption scenarios related to the current war.

Under the moderate disruption scenario, oil could jump to some $102, with supply loss at 0.5 to 2 million bpd.

Under a medium disruption scenario, 3 to 5 million bpd would be lost, and prices could reach $120.

Finally, the large disruption option could push Oi to $157 as the world loses 6-8 million bpd.

Sure, it’s very, very unlikely that even a moderate disruption would happen.

But with Middle Eastern events, you never know.

So, how about that transition?

The presidency of COP28 and IRENA this week said we need to triple renewable installations by 2030.

Obviously, this is a fantasy, but if oil prices rise in any significant way, any increase in those installations will stall.

Because, guess what, there’s a lot of petrochemicals in wind and solar components.

Plastics, dyes, resins, the carbon fiber that wind turbine blades are made of – it all comes from oil.

Imagine, if oil prices spike above $100, where would wind and solar costs go?

It won’t be down, that’s for sure.

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Canada Moves Closer To Becoming LNG Exporter

Canada just moved a step closer to joining the LNG exporters’ club.

TC Energy said the Coastal Gaslink pipeline was completed.

It’s kind of a miracle after massive opposition and attempts to use courts to stop the project.

Better late than never

Many industry watchers have been saying that Canada is very late to the LNG party.

But let’s be honest, it’s not for lack of trying.

It’s because of red tape and anti-oil and gas sentiments at the highest political level.

Even so, Shell and its partners in the LNG Canada project made the bet a few years ago.

The Coastal Gaslink is the conduit for the gas that will be fed into the facility in Kitimat, BC.

Without it, LNG Canada would have been dead.

And that’s why there was so much opposition to the pipeline project.

Luckily, it didn’t have the fate of several other pipelines that Canadian politicians and activists killed together.

Seriously, it’s a miracle.

“No business case for LNG”

The pipeline that will feed gas into LNG Canada comes amid LNG skepticism from the highest place in Ottawa.

None other than PM Trudeau last year told Germany’s Scholz that there was no business case for Canadian LNG exports.

And he meant it if you can believe it.

No business case for LNG when gas prices in Europe were through the roof because of tight gas supply?

No business case for LNG when new U.S. facilities would take a few years to come online?

Sure, there’s totally no business case for Canadian LNG.

Good thing the government couldn’t stop LNG Canada and the Coastal Gaslink.

Upcoming Oil & Gas Events

• November 1: Oil and Gas Electrification Symposium, Longmont, CO

• November 2: LOGA State Industry Series, Benedict’s Plantation, Mandeville, LA

• November 6: Louisiana Energy Golf Open, Oakbourne Country Club, Lafayette, LA

• November 6-8: IPAA Annual Meeting, JW Marriott San Antonio Hill Country Resort and Spa, San Antonio, TX

• November 7: LOGA State of the Industry Series, Petroleum Club of Houston, Houston, TX

• November 8: Colorado Oil and Gas Association 39th Annual Meeting, Denver, CO

• November 8: IADC Annual General Meeting, Hyatt Regency Austin, TX

• November 9: Deepwater Executive Summit, Hyatt Houston West, Houston, TX

Around the Global Patch

🇮🇩 Eni secures LNG deal in Indonesia.
🇨🇳 China's graphite export regulations: impact on energy.
🇷🇺 Russian oil exports surge against supply reduction pledge.

Tweet of the Day

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