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• World’s Emissions Hit Another Record

• Oil Demand Set To Expand by 1.9 Million Bpd This Y …

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World’s Emissions Hit Another Record

Global CO2 emissions broke another record last year.

That’s despite the massive push to decarbonize in Europe and North America.

Not-so-shockingly, the rise was led by the developing world.

Transition versus energy security

China and India led the increase in emissions last year.

Emissions in the EU and the U.S. fell.

That was thanks to lower energy consumption in the EU and lower coal generation in the U.S.

And we all know what this cost in terms of GDP.

Hint: a lot.

China and India expanded much more strongly than the EU or the U.S. last year.

And this expansion costs emissions.

Just like the EU’s stagnation with recession here and there led to lower emissions.

Economic growth or emission cuts?

This is the question it all comes down to, ultimately.

You can either have strong economic growth, like China and India.

Or you can have lower emissions and recession.

That’s because economic growth demands cheap energy.

And as the EU and the U.S. are discovering now, the “cheapest ever” hype about wind and solar was very, very wrong.

If these were cheap, China would have already gotten rid of coal.

But instead, it’s building more.

If these were cheap, India would be catching up with China on capacity.

It’s not.

Because they’re not cheap.

Emissions will continue to rise, by the way.

The Asian economies need growth, not emission reductions.

And Europe will continue to deindustrialize—with no positive effect on global emissions.

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Oil Demand Set To Expand by 1.9 Million Bpd This Year

Oil demand continues to grow despite efforts to the contrary.

This year, Wood Mac says it will add another 1.9 million bpd.

Which means another record will fall.

Trust no one when it comes to demand forecasts

Wood Mac’s 2024 demand forecast is lower than OPEC’s.

But it’s higher than the IEA’s forecast.

OPEC sees demand this year growing by 2.25 million bpd.

The IEA expects it at 1.22 million bpd.

The IEA has been wrong before.

In fact, it’s regularly wrong at the start of a new year.

Then it starts revising its projections upwards, pretending it wasn’t wrong.

OPEC tends to overestimate demand growth—but not as much as the IEA underestimates it.

The safest bet is not to trust any of these but to keep their bias in mind.

Too many forecasters sold out

Just a decade ago, you could trust the IEA’s numbers.

Now, you must take even Wood Mac’s with suspicion.

Because a lot of forecasters bought into the transition.

Which means their numbers are based on some massive assumptions.

If the assumption proves wrong, nobody seems to care.

Except those who make important decisions based on those assumptions.

Think about the coming shortage of talent in oil and gas.

That would be a huge problem in the future.

And it was caused solely by the assumption that oil demand will die soon.

How’s that for a bad forecast?

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